Do exports enhance savings in the developing economies? An analysis of Maizels’ hypothesis

The paper examines the effects of exports, alongside other relevant variables, on aggregate savings in developing economies over 1980–2018 period. The analysis is performed for a large panel consisting of 33 developing economies, as well as smaller panels, including economies in Latin America, Africa, Asia, the least developed and oil-exporting economies. The paper conducts a series of panels unit root tests and employs panel cointegration, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector autoregression (VAR) models. The results were consistent across the panels: in each region (group of economies) and in developing economies as a whole, exports had positive effects on savings. The effects of GDP growth rate and non-export component of GDP were likewise positive, in line with Keynesian view of savings function and with Maizels' (Exports and economic growth of developing countries, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1968) hypothesis of higher contribution of exports (than non-export part of GDP) to savings (particularly in the export-oriented economies). Foreign capital inflows and changes in terms of trade had positive and negative contribution to savings, respectively.