Digitization and carbon emissions: how does the development of China’s digital economy affect carbon intensity?

The digital economy and the pursuit of carbon peak and carbon neutrality have emerged as crucial focal points for China’s future development. However, the intricate relationship between the digital economy and carbon intensity remains uncertain. Based on the construction of the digital economy evaluation index system, using panel data for 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2019, this study estimates the impact of the digital economy development on carbon intensity by adopting the system-generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) technique. The results show that the digital economy can effectively reduce the carbon intensity. This conclusion was supported by robustness tests. However, the carbon emission reduction effect of the digital economy exhibits heterogeneity with respect to the digital economy dimensions and regions. In addition to digital industrialization and industrial digitization reducing the carbon intensity, the digital economy development carrier has an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship with carbon intensity. Additionally, the digital economy has a more obvious inhibitory effect on carbon intensity in the eastern region. Most importantly, besides the mediating effects of technological progress and financial development, this paper finds that the digital economy can increase carbon intensity through human capital accumulation. These conclusions provide a certain scientific basis for the effective implementation of China’s digital economy and carbon peak and carbon–neutral development strategy. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2024.