Rainfall patterns are predicted to change dramatically in many terrestrial landscapes, including drylands. The most limiting resources for plant growth in arid regions is nitrogen (N) as well as water. A natural aridity gradient provides appropriate candidate conditions for predicting the impacts of changes in rainfall on soil N dynamics. To comprehensively and mechanistically examine soil N dynamics, we focused on the steps of N transformation, their microbial drivers, and the determining soil properties. We divided the N transformation process into three steps: (i) organic matter degradation, (ii) N mineralization, and (iii) nitrification, which are driven primarily by fungi, prokaryotes, and ammonia oxidizers, respectively. Soil samples were collected from three black locust forests with mean annual precipitations ranging from 449 to 606 mm. Along the aridity gradient, all three steps changed while maintaining a balance. The degradation and mineralization steps varied with changes in the soil fungal and prokaryotic communities, respectively. The compositions of these communities were determined by soil substrate quality and quantity; saprotrophs and copiotrophs decreased along the aridity gradient. On the other hand, the abundance of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria, which correlated with the rate of nitrification, was likely determined by soil moisture. Therefore, if precipitation were to decrease, changes in the nitrification step might be the first mechanism to limit plant productivity in semi-arid forests. This limitation would extend to the other steps in the N cycling process via plant–soil feedback. Thus, N cycling dynamics are predicted to achieve new stable states suited to the changed precipitation regime.