A comparative study of deterministic and ensemble weather forecasts for weather routing

This paper presents and discusses the results of a comparison between using deterministic and ensemble weather forecasts for weather routing. The study is based on comparisons between predicted and realised performance of routes suggested by a route optimization method and focuses on two important performance factors, namely, fuel consumption and late arrival. The study is purely qualitative since the simulations do not include re-routing of the vessel as new forecasts become available. To perform the study a multi-objective dynamic programming method is tailored to the problem and implemented to perform the route optimization and a ship performance model is used to calculate the additional fuel consumption due to wind and waves acting on the ship. The results show that route optimization using ensemble weather forecasts has the potential to reduce the risk of late arrival for voyages during periods of harsh weather.