U.S. evolving strategic thinking about Taiwan

In the context of the intensified United States–China great power competition under Presidents Donald Trump and Joseph Biden, the U.S. strategic thinking about Taiwan has evolved. While the U.S. still expresses concern for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, it has more recently come to covet Taiwan as a strategic U.S. asset. As such it perceives Taiwan’s continued separation from the Chinese mainland to be in the U.S. national interests. The enhancement of U.S. existing economic, political, and security interests as regards Taiwan and a “rediscovery” of Taiwan’s intrinsic military value have combined to drive the evolution of the U.S. strategic thinking. Concurrently the policies and behaviors of both Beijing and Taipei have served to complement and facilitate this evolution. The new U.S. strategic thinking, even if it is incomplete and has limits, means that U.S. and Chinese perspectives on Taiwan have become much more incompatible, and that Chinese trust in the U.S.’ long-term intentions has all but evaporated. Unless the Taiwan issue is managed with greater caution and restraint, the U.S. and China will likely be on a collision course to conflict over Taiwan. © 2022, The Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS), Peking University.