Simulation of emission reduction path under the path of differentiated energy transformation in China’s industrial cities: a case study of Shanghai

The formulation of long-term step-by-step emission reduction plan is an important step for effective scientific emission reduction. This paper takes Shanghai as the research object, constructs PSO-LSTM model on the basis of STIRPAT model, and further constructs three dynamic policy scenarios combined with China’s actual situation and makes short-, medium-, and long-term multivariate predictions for them. The study finds that only the improvement of energy consumption structure has a promotion effect on carbon emission reduction, and urbanization, industrial structure, technology level, population, and economic level all have an increasing effect, and secondly, the carbon emission reduction path of Shanghai basically achieves the core objective of steady decrease under the three scenarios. Secondly, under the three scenarios, Shanghai’s carbon emission reduction path basically achieves the core objective of steady decline, but the decline in the GU scenario is more significant. It is recommended that Shanghai further adjusts its industrial structure, optimizes its energy consumption structure, promotes technological innovation and progress, and promotes the development of the circular economy model.