Climate sensitivity of soil water regime of different Hungarian Chernozem soil subtypes

In this study the possible effects of two predicted climate change scenarios on soil water regime of Hungarian Calcic Chernozem soils has been investigated. Soil profiles classified as Calcic Chernozem — in total 49 — were selected from the MARTHA soil physical database that incorporates soil data at national scale. These profiles were subdivided into three groups (sandy loam, loam and clayey loam) in accordance with their mechanical composition. Soil water retention curves were scaled separately for each of the three textural groups, using similar media scaling in order to represent the variability of soil hydrophysical data with one parameter, the scaling factor (SF). Reference soil profiles were chosen according to the cumulative distribution function of the scaling factor, six for each textural group. Daily downscaled meteorological data from A2 and B2 climate scenarios of the Hadley Centre (2070–2100) and data from a reference period (RF, 1961–1990) were used in this study to characterize different climatic situations. Nine representative years were selected in case of all the three scenarios, using the cumulative probability function of the annual precipitation sum. Scenario analyses were performed, validating the SWAP soil water balance simulation model for the 18 reference soil profiles and 27 representative years in order to evaluate the expected changes in soil water regime under different from the present (RF) climatic conditions (A2 and B2 scenarios). Our results show that the scaling factor could be used as a climate sensitivity indicator of soil water regime. The large climate sensitivity of the majority of Chernozem soil subtypes water regime has been proven.