Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama) in China under climate change scenarios

Climate change significantly affects geographic distribution of plants pests and diseases worldwide. Understanding the influence of future climate change on the suitable areas of Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama) in our country and taking timely countermeasures are crucial for improving the effectiveness of control of pest. Based on the occurrence points of D. citri and the selected environmental variables, the potential suitable areas of this pest under climate change scenarios in China were predicted by using MaxEnt and GIS tools. Our results showed that the higly suitable area were mainly located in Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Southern Zhejiang, Southern Jiangxi, Eastern Hunan, Southwestern Guizhou, and the area was 43.7 × 104 km2. Areas of moderate and low suitability were centered on areas of high suitability and radiate to the North successively, with an area of 59.28 × 104 km2 and 93.46 × 104 km2 respectively. From current to 2070 s, the areas of the highly suitable areas will increase, and the geometric center of the highly and total suitable areas will move to north under three climate change scenarios.