Spatial–temporal differentiation and dynamic spatial convergence of inclusive low-carbon development: evidence from China

Promoting green and low-carbon development has become a global consensus. However, few studies have explored the scientific connotation and influencing factors of inclusive low-carbon development (ILCD). Based on the perspective of inclusive growth and sustainable development, this paper constructs an economic growth-social inclusion-low carbon development (ESC) analytical framework and uses the improved entropy weight method to estimate the ILCD level of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2020. Kernel density estimation, Moran’s I index, and Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition are used to characterize the spatial and temporal variation patterns, and the variation coefficient and the dynamic spatial Durbin model are used to explore the dynamic spatial convergence characteristics. The results show that (1) ILCD in China is increasing steadily overall, but there is a significant spatial non-equilibrium characteristic of high in the east and low in the west. (2) The overall difference in ILCD shows a trend of fluctuation and narrowing, and the imbalance between regions is the primary source of the overall difference. (3) ILCD has significant path dependence and dynamic spatial convergence characteristics in the whole country and the three regions, and the spatial spillover effect tends to be good neighborliness. The rate of convergence shows a trend of national (4.77%) > western (2.33%) > eastern (1.97%) > central (0.96%), and the spatial convergence of the club is gradually becoming prominent. (4) The factors including economic development, technological innovation, urbanization level and human capital significantly affect ILCD, which also has regional heterogeneous. Therefore, it is necessary to break down administrative and market barriers, strengthen cross-regional cooperation and resource interconnectivity, and bring into play policy synergy to provide decision-making reference for achieving inclusive low-carbon development.