How does trade policy uncertainty affect green innovation in the USA and China? A nonlinear perspective

Green innovations are the most critical factor in promoting environmental sustainability worldwide. Trade can speed up the adoption of green innovations by facilitating the transfer of information, skills, and technology. However, trade policy uncertainty can create significant challenges for businesses investing in eco-innovations, leading to increased risk, reduced investment, and slower progress toward sustainable technologies. Recently, a growing number of researchers have shown their interest in finding the factors that can impact green innovations, but none have investigated the influence of trade policy uncertainty on green innovations in the USA and China. In addition, none of the past studies has relied on the nonlinear assumption. This analysis fills these gaps by examining the nonlinear impacts of trade policy uncertainty on eco-innovations in China and the USA over 2000Q1–2021Q4 by employing a nonlinear ARDL model. The finding reveals that a positive shock in trade policy uncertainty results in a decrease in green innovation in the USA and China, while a negative shock in trade policy uncertainty leads to an increase in green innovation in the USA over the long run. The nonlinear models also indicate that a positive shock in trade policy uncertainty harms green innovation in both the USA and China in the short run. The robustness of these results is confirmed by the NQARDL model, which confirms that an upsurge in trade policy uncertainty lowers green innovation in most quantiles in the USA and China in the short and long run. Conversely, negative shocks in trade policy uncertainty stimulate green innovation at most quantiles in both China and the USA, in the short and long run. Thus, policymakers need to consider the potential impact of trade policies on eco-innovations and work to create stable and predictable trade environments that support the growth of renewable technologies and other sustainable solutions.