The impact of sea-level rise along the Polish Baltic coast

A DTM (Digital Terrain Model) map and the analytical powers of GIS (Geographical Information System) were used in deterministic and probabilistic methods for analysis of inundation of a coastal area. These methods were applied to evaluate the effects of a rise in sea-level on the coastal zone of the Puck Lagoon (Poland) over a period of 100 years. The analysis evaluated the following aspects: the threat to man-made objects such as buildings and roads; changes in the impact of the sea on the coastal environment manifested as the frequency of flooding of grasslands and marshland in the coastal depression, and the formation of a dune embankment. The analysis covered a ca. 5 km stretch of low-lying coastline, in which there are two rapidly growing villages and a nature reserve. The study showed that a sea-level rise of 40 cm would increase the frequency of flooding in the area and would probably cause the dune ridge vegetation to deteriorate.