Transmission tree of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) epidemic in Israel, 2015

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作者：
Timothée Vergne
Guillaume Fournié
Michal Perry Markovich
Rolf J. F. Ypma
Ram Katz
Irena Shkoda
Avishai Lublin
Shimon Perk
Dirk U. Pfeiffer
机构：
[1] Royal Veterinary College,Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, Department of Production and Population Health
[2] Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development,Veterinary Services
[3] University of Cambridge,Brain Mapping Unit
[4] Kimron Veterinary Institute,undefined
来源：
Veterinary Research | / 47卷
关键词：
Avian Influenza; Avian Influenza Virus; Deviance Information Criterion; Transmission Event; Pathogenic Avian Influenza;
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摘要：
The transmission tree of the Israeli 2015 epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) was modelled by combining the spatio-temporal distribution of the outbreaks and the genetic distance between virus isolates. The most likely successions of transmission events were determined and transmission parameters were estimated. It was found that the median infectious pressure exerted at 1 km was 1.59 times (95% CI 1.04, 6.01) and 3.54 times (95% CI 1.09, 131.75) higher than that exerted at 2 and 5 km, respectively, and that three farms were responsible for all seven transmission events.
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