Urban Growth Simulations in a Medium-Sized City of Mangaluru, India, Through CA-Based SLEUTH Urban Growth Model

In the context of rapid urban growth in the small- and medium-sized cities of developing countries, the current work attempts to calibrate the CA-based SLEUTH urban growth model to and predict urban growth for the first time in a medium-sized city of Mangaluru in southern India. The city has experienced rapid urban growth in recent times. The current study uses the mixed methodology approach by incorporating the application of remote sensing, GIS, spatial metrics and urban growth model to map, quantify, analyse and predict urban growth dynamics of Mangaluru during the period from 2000 to 2031. The analysis of classified historical urban growth during 2000–2020 shows that there is a consistent increase in the urban area in Mangaluru. Further, the spatial metrics used to quantify the pattern of urban growth for the historical and predicted years show that the city is growing aggregated with several growth centres around the city. The SLEUTH model was calibrated using the historical urban area of 2000–2016, to predict urban growth for the year 2031. The urban growth simulation from SLEUTH shows slope resistance, spread and road gravity are the foremost factors influencing urban growth in Mangaluru. The urban area is expected to increase by 6895 Ha from 11984 Ha in 2020 to 18880 Ha by 2031. The growth is expected to reduce in the eastern part due to the resistance effect of the slope. The validation of the model output establishes it as acceptable but found limitations to simulate the small patchy and scattered urban growth in the outskirt of the city. The use of spatial metrics along with the SLEUTH urban growth modelling can be useful for a better understanding of the urban growth process and would therefore aid urban planners to manage future urban growth sustainably.