Kinematic Modeling of Pyroclastic Flows Produced by Gravitational Dome Collapse at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Volcanic activity commenced 18 July 1995 at SoufriereHills volcano and has led to the creation of a newlava dome, which has repeatedly collapsed between 1996and 1999 resulting in highly mobile pyroclastic flows. The majority of associated pyroclastic flow phenomenaare consistent with initiation by gravitationalcollapse as blocks fall from oversteepened flanks ofthe new dome. If gravity controls the energy transferof such collapses, then areas likely to be affectedcan be predicted on the basis of topography. We focuson `dense' flows initiated by non-explosive,gravitational collapse (`Merapi-type' pyroclasticflows) and employ a graphical computer model (Flow3D)written to simulate this type of volcanic flow. Theprogram constructs a digital terrain model based upona 3D network of (x, y, z) triplets, which serves as thebasis for the numerical computations. A synthetic domewas added to the topographic model to improve theaccuracy of the simulations. After estimating thesmall number of key adjustable parameters, simulatedflow pathways, runout distances, and velocitiesclosely approximated observed Merapi-type pyroclasticflows on Montserrat. These simulations demonstrate thevalidity of a simple kinematic method to model densepyroclastic flow phenomena. While the simulationspresented here do not elucidate additional physics ofpyroclastic flow phenomena, this type of modeling canbe completed easily and without extensivea priori knowledge of volcano-specific parameters otherthan topography. Accordingly, it may serve as a rapidand inexpensive first-order approach for initialhazard assessment.