The impacts of driving variables on energy-related carbon emissions reduction in the building sector based on an extended LMDI model: a case study in China

As China’s main contributor to energy-related carbon emissions, the building sector in Jiangsu Province generates around 13.58% of the national carbon emissions. However, the influential variables of the energy structure in Jiangsu Province have been little investigated during the past decade. With the increasing emphasis on China’s investment in technological innovation and adjustment of its industrial structure, research and development (R&D) has become an inevitable area for carbon emissions reduction. Nevertheless, its role in carbon emissions has rarely been examined. In this research, based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model, the variables affecting the fluctuation of carbon dioxide emissions in the building sector (CEBS) in Jiangsu Province during 2011–2019 were restructured by introducing technological factors related to the construction industry, including energy structure, energy intensity, R&D efficiency, R&D intensity, investment intensity, economic output, and population engaged in the construction industry. From the results, it can be inferred that (1) energy structure, energy intensity, R&D efficiency, and investment intensity operate as inhibitors in increasing CEBS, and investment intensity exerts a more prominent impact on suppressing the growth of CEBS; (2) R&D intensity, economic output, and population engaged have a promotional effect on the fluctuations of CEBS, among which the first factor most actively promoted the increase in carbon emissions, although its role was negligible for economic output and the population; and (3) R&D efficiency, R&D intensity, and investment intensity are the three most critical variables for influencing the CEBS, but they are volatile. The numerical fluctuation caused by the three factors might be correlated to national and local policy interventions. Finally, policy recommendations are put forward for strengthening the management and minimizing the CEBS in Jiangsu Province.