Regional food security risk assessment under the coordinated development of water resources

Agricultural water use plays an important role in maintaining food security. The present paper utilizes an agent-based model of the complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory for the dynamic simulation of four water resource utilization plans and was able to forecast the per capita food share, per capita income and water security rate under three climatic conditions in Heilongjiang Province, China, in 2020. The forecasts were performed under the broad principle of coordinated regional development and based on Heilongjiang’s food production, water resources and population data 2003–2010. The measured data for Heilongjiang Province in 2011 were used to perform joint risk analyses of the forecast results. The results showed that the comprehensive plan combining technological innovation and policy control provides the best method of achieving food security under the three climatic conditions. However, compared to maintaining the status quo, this combination plan decreases by approximately 8 % under the three climatic conditions, but the per capita share of food and the rate of water security increase to over 10 and 20 %, respectively. Therefore, to further reduce the pressure on water resources in Heilongjiang Province and to lessen the impact of climate on food production, advanced technology and policy regulations should be increasingly integrated into various industries to ensure the sustainable supply of regional water resources for food production.