On Assessment Indicators for Russia’s Demographic Security

Abstract—: The article considers the issues of creating assessment indicators for national demographic security for the purposes of governance decision-making. The result of the study is the calculation of a generalized indicator that characterizes the status of demographic security of the Russian Federation based on statistical data and querying 40 experts. The values established for the indicator for the period 2000–2021 are negative (with the exception of 2008–2012), which is associated with a low birth rate and negative influence of other factors on the demographic situation in Russia. Factor analysis of changes of the generalized demographic indicator for the beginning of the period of improvement of its values (2007–2008) confirms this conclusion. A target value for the indicator is proposed and substantiated; it can be used for comparison with estimates of actual values and for factor analysis that aims to identify main obstacles to achieving that target value. The presented calculations of demographic security assessment are an example application of the proposed methodology, which can be used to calculate generalized indicators for any area of Russia’s national security. © 2023, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.