Temporal and spatial variability of chlorophyll a concentration in Lake Taihu using MODIS time-series data

In order to predict the distribution of chlorophyll a synoptically in Lake Taihu from 2006 to 2008, a common empirical algorithm was developed to relate time series chlorophyll a concentrations in the lake to reflectance derived as a function of band 2 MODIS data (r2 = 0.907, n = 145) using time series from 2005. The empirical model was further validated with chlorophyll a data from a 2008 to 2009 dataset, with RMSE < 7.48 μg l−1 and r2 = 0.978. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of the surface chlorophyll a concentration from 2006 to 2008 was then examined using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The results revealed that the first four modes were significant, explaining 54.0% of the total chlorophyll a variance, and indicated that during the summer, algal blooms always occur in the northern bays, Meiliang Bay and Gonghu Bay, while they occur along the southwestern lakeshore during early summer, fall, and even early winter. The inter-annual variance analysis showed that the duration of algal blooms was from April to December of 2007, which was different from the bloom periods in 2006 and 2008. The results of EOF analysis show its potential for long-term integrated lake monitoring, not only in Lake Taihu but also in other large lakes threatened by accelerating eutrophication.