Time of emergence for regional sea-level change

被引：0
|
作者：
Kewei Lyu
Xuebin Zhang
John A. Church
Aimée B. A. Slangen
Jianyu Hu
机构：
[1] Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research,
[2] CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship,undefined
[3] State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science,undefined
[4] College of Ocean and Earth Sciences,undefined
[5] Xiamen University,undefined
来源：
Nature Climate Change | 2014年 / 4卷
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摘要：
This work investigates when the anthropogenic signal in regional sea-level rise will emerge from natural variability. Considering thermal expansion and changes in density and circulation, 50% of the global ocean will show an anthropogenic signal by the early-to-mid 2040s, whereas when all variables are considered, the anthropogenic signal will emerge in over 50% of the global ocean by 2020. This is substantially earlier than for surface air temperature and has little dependence on emissions scenarios.
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页码：1006 / 1010
页数：4
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