Dynamic simulation of urban expansion based on Cellular Automata and Markov Chain Model: a case study in Siliguri Metropolitan Area, West Bengal

Urbanization is a process of population concentration, horizontal and as well as vertical expansion of city, such expansion creates stress on local resource and the environment. With the increase of economic functionality, rapid rate of population concentration in Metropolitan city Siliguri and associated urban expansion has been observed. This outward expansion led rapid rate of land-use transformation and environmental decay. Therefore, it is very essential to monitor urban dynamics-related ecological transformation. The present investigation has been selected to model urban dynamics with the help of Markov Chain base simulation model for the prediction of future urban growth pattern and direction. Simulated outputs show that from 1991 to 2033, there will be considerable decay in the agricultural and forest land because of the rapid urban expansion. Sprawling tendency has been observed from 2001, and the expansion is continuously growing in south west direction. The major transformation has occurred with a growth in the amount of built area, from 1991 to 2017, and the amount of built lands increased by 11.2%, green land decreased by 11.5%, and the water body has been decrease by 3.7%. These changes reveal the encroachment of green lands and open lands as two important and ecological infrastructures.