Modeling the Development of Ice Phenomena in Rivers as Applied to the Assessment of Probable Changes in Ice Conditions at Various Scenarios of the Future Climate

The results of investigations of the alteration in river ice regime associated with the global climate warming are presented. It is shown that a simple model based on the relationship between the dates of ice phenomena and the average air temperature for the preceding month can be used for the assessment of probable changes in ice phenomena at various scenarios of the future climate. It is found that as a rule, the allowance made for the rate of streamflow in autumn does not improve the assessment of the probable dates of river freeze-up, whereas the model of the process of river breakup allows improving the estimates of the relevant shifts in the dates.