THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CARBON STORAGE IN UNITED STATES UNRESERVED TIMBERLANDS BY REDUCING FOREST FIRE FREQUENCY: AN ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

In this paper, we link the impact of fire damage on forests with an economic model of the United States forest sector in order to determine if a reduction in forest fire frequency will increase the projected storage of carbon in United States forests. We first develop a model of forest mortality following fire. We then link this model to an inventory model of United States forests, which allows us to determine how changes in the frequency of fires will impact forest inventories. Changes in inventory levels can be used to project both the amount of carbon stored and an economic response. If fire frequency is reduced from its current level, measured as the average from 1984 to 1990, we find that carbon storage can be increased in unreserved U.S. timberlands over the period 1990 to 2040.