A fuzzy cellular automata urban growth model (FCAUGM) for the city of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. part 2: Scenario testing

The city of Riyadh in Saudi Arabia has undergone phenomenal urban development over the last six decades. As a result of poor planning and management by the authorities, Riyadh has experienced haphazard urban growth. In the companion paper, a fuzzy cellular automata model of urban growth was presented (Al-Ahmadi et al. 2008b). This model was shown to be capable of replicating the trends and characteristics of an urban environment, in this case the city of Riyadh. In this paper, the model is used to study and evaluate several different planning scenarios, both baseline ones and scenarios that relate to actual Saudi government policy. The results demonstrate that the model is capable of predicting plausible patterns of future urban growth. The model also has wider implications for use as a spatial planning support tool for urban planners and decision-makers in Saudi Arabia. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.