Risk assessment at Puerto Vallarta due to a local tsunami

The Jalisco region in western Mexico is one of the most seismically active in the country. The city of Puerto Vallarta is located at Bahía de Banderas on the northern coast of Jalisco. Currently there exists a Seismic Gap in the Northern coast of Jalisco (Vallarta Gap). Historically seismogenic tsunamis have affected the coast of Jalisco. In this work, we assess the risk due to a local tsunami in the city of Puerto Vallarta as a function of the interaction between hazard and vulnerability. We model the tsunami hazard, generation and propagation, using the initial conditions for a great earthquake (Mw ≥ 8.0) similar to those that occurred in 1787 at Oaxaca and in 1995 at Tenacatita Bay, Jalisco. Vulnerability is estimated with available data for the years 2010–2015 with sociodemographic variables and the location of government, commercial or cultural facilities. The area with the highest vulnerability and risk is between the valleys of the Ameca and Pitillal Rivers, extending to a distance greater than 5.1 km from the coastline and affecting an area of 30.55 km2. This study does not consider the direct damage caused by the tsunamigenic earthquake and aftershocks; it assumes that critical buildings in the region, mostly hotels, would not collapse after the earthquake and could serve as a refuge for its users. The first (It) tsunami wave arrives to Puerto Vallarta (Cuale) 19 min after the earthquake with a height (Hi) of 3.7 m; the run-up (At) arrives 74 min after earthquake with a height (Hr) of 5.6 m.