Revisiting the relationship between common weather variables and loblolly–shortleaf pine seed crops in natural stands

Seed production was monitored during24 years using seed-collection traps inloblolly–shortleaf pine (Pinus taeda L.–P.echinata Mill.) stands located in southeast Arkansas,north-central Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi onthe southeastern Coastal Plain, USA. Sound seedproduction was correlated with mean monthlyprecipitation and temperature from National Oceanicand Atmospheric Administration weather stationslocated near the seed-collection areas to determinethe potential of weather factors in forecasting pineseed crops. Correlations were restricted to threecritical periods in the pine reproductive cycle –strobili primordia differentiation, pollination, andfertilization. The most important (P ≤ 0.05)variables correlated with pine seed production for combined locations were cumulative precipitation (r = +0.60) during July, August, and September at 27 to 25 months before seed dispersal and mean temperature (r = −0.45) in August at 26 months before seed dispersal. Because multiple environmental factors can negatively impact pine seed development during the two yearsfollowing strobili primordia differentiation,seed-production forecasts based on weather variablesshould be verified by on-site cone counts during thesummer preceding autumn seed dispersal.