Analytical Framework for a Risk-based Estimation of Climate Change Effects on Mine Site Runoff Water Quality

A conceptual analytical framework was developed for the risk-based estimation of climate change effects on mine waste runoff water quality. The modeling approach incorporates temporal variability in both precipitation and temperature using trend analyses from historical datasets and the resulting effects on water balances and geochemical weathering rates. A case-study method was used to develop and present the model for regions near the city of Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, Canada. Time-resolved relative precipitation and weathering factors can be calculated using climate data and site-specific estimates regarding mine waste properties. Interpretation of these factors allows an assessment of when the period of highest analyte concentrations are expected to occur under a given risk scenario over a modeling timeframe, whether low precipitation or warming effects are more important in determining water quality issues, and the relative magnitudes of water quality under differing risk scenarios.