Assessing impact of forest landscape dynamics on migratory corridors: a case study of two protected areas in Himalayan foothills

Contiguity of protected areas (PAs) is a critical factor to promote well being of the native flora, fauna and life support system to humans. Such contiguity cannot be guaranteed without providing a path or ‘a corridor’ through forested landscapes that includes natural land cover and undisturbed patches. Incidentally, the Himalayan foothills have greater pressure on these landscapes due to high human dependence for livelihood. This pressure is expected to increase in the coming years altering the potential corridors between PAs. The PA managers need flexible processing, modeling and decision tools to propose a range of acceptable corridors between the PAs and ensure their sustainable health. Such flexible tools can be utilized in future to modify for taking decision to conserve the patches connecting patches and adapt as per changing landscapes. This article describes utility of geospatial modeling tools to assess the status of corridors in light of changing landscapes between Rajaji and Jim Corbett National Park, the two most important PAs in the Himalayan foothills. The work has been carried out in four stages, first—using satellite data land use land cover (LULC) maps were prepared for year 1990, 2000 and 2005, second—Land Change Modeler (LCM) was used for LULC change analysis, third—Multi Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN) was used to predict the status of LULC for 2015 and 2020, and fourth—using temporal morphology of the areas behaving both as barrier and easiness, friction surface cost was calculated to identify least cost pathways (LCPs)/migratory corridors between the PAs. The LULC maps for 1990, 2000 and 2005 were evaluated using accuracy assessment (80%) and Khat statistics (>0.79). The change prediction model was validated by comparing actual LULC of 2005 with predicted LULC of 2005 and the agreement was 71%. The LCP has shifted with the predicted change in the classes. The corridor has shifted by 0.5–3 km towards the south and has come closer to the agriculture fields and river channels.