Simulation of Land Use Changes in Metropolitan Suburban Area: A Case Study of Sholinganallur

Land use planning for a city is a complex activity involving assumptions on likely development. It is also a complex system wherein the planners need to recognize various influencing parameters. Verifying the factors influencing development over a period of time, that too for a vast area of metropolitan city is a herculean task. In order to keep them in control, planners need tools and techniques which may be handy to operate, allowing the planners at the beginning itself to have alternative plans as well as interim evaluation of the achievement of a plan. Absence of such a tool in the hands of the planners forces a plan to be monolithic and left with no interim evaluation. This research has identified four variables which highly influence land use change namely accessibility to transportation network; physical quality and land availability; proximity to work places; and plans and policies. A simulation model is developed to validate these variables for the suburbs of Chennai Metropolitan Area. Land use scenario for residential land use are simulated for the sub urban area-Sholinganallur for the years 1980, 1991, 2006 and 2011. Over 65 % agreement is observed in residential land use between the actual land use and the simulated extents. © 2015, The Institution of Engineers (India).