Long-range forecasting of monthly and seasonal air temperatures considering periodical nonstationarity

被引：1

作者：

Sherstyukov B.G. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information, World Data Center, Obninsk, Kaluga oblast 249020

来源：

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology | 2007年 / 32卷 / 9期

关键词：

Temperature Anomaly; RUSSIAN Meteorology; Atmospheric Disturbance; Experimental Forecast; Verification Score;

D O I：

10.3103/S1068373907090026

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

A statistical method is proposed for prediction of monthly mean, seasonal mean, and annual mean temperatures with 12-month projection. The method is based upon revealing latent rhythms of the climate system which force sequences of interannual disturbances in air temperature. In selection of the rhythms with prognostic information, it is taken into account that season-to-season transition violates the time series stationarity. The forecast verification shows advantage of the proposed method as compared with climatologic forecasts. © Allerton Press, Inc. 2007.

引用

页码：557 / 564

页数：7

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