A probabilistic approach to assess the impact of wind power generation in transmission network expansion planning

In order to accommodate the uncertainty and variability of wind power, this paper proposes a scenario-based probabilistic model to assess the impact of intermittent wind power-based Renewable Energy Resources (RES) on the Transmission Network Expansion Planning (TNEP). The objectives comprise the evaluation of impacts considering the wind power penetration into connected and unconnected buses, as well as the optimization of reinforcements that must be made to avoid unwanted wind cutting operations and load shedding. The wind power uncertainties are represented through scenarios obtained from real historical series grouped by using the well-known k-means algorithm. The methodology performance is verified in a practical equivalent Brazilian southern system, modified to include a significant amount of wind energy. The obtained results show that the RES insertion impacts the TNEP task, changing the expansion decision.