Agent-based modelling for spatiotemporal patterns of urban land expansion around university campuses

University campuses are known to be accompanied by physical and economic spatiotemporal patterns that contribute to the urban land expansion process of their respective cities. Therefore, this paper assesses the impact brought by Kyushu University’s Ito campus on the urban land expansion process of Fukuoka City since its establishment. First, ArcGIS software was used to develop urbanity raster maps by aggregating space syntax, spacematrix, and mixed-use index maps. Then, Netlogo software was used to create the simulation model using urbanity maps. Furthermore, agents for simulating the urban land expansion process were created based on developers’ behavior retrieved from the literature and real-world observed data. Proposed model has been verified by conducting a sensitivity analysis and checking R-squared value of simulated maps. Then, the model has been used to simulate expected urban land expansion before and after Ito campus establishment. Comparing resulted maps has shown that Ito campus is anticipated to have accelerated the urban land expansion process in the area by 3.3 times on average. Thus, university campuses can be considered as accelerators for the urban land expansion process of their respective cities. The significance of this paper lies in proposing a model that can be used, by urban planners and decision-makers, to anticipate urban land expansion to come up with evidence-based research-informed land management plans.