Are exports a reliable source of economic growth in MENA countries? New evidence from the rolling Granger causality method

Earlier investigations have concentrated on the effect of export expansion on economic growth while ignoring the importance of the stability of such relationship. This paper re-investigates empirically the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for five countries in the MENA region: Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, and Turkey, using the Granger causality technique. This study covers the sample period from 1980:Q1 to 2012:Q4. With the full sample, we find evidence supporting the ELG hypothesis only in Jordan, Morocco, and Turkey. Nonetheless, our time-varying Granger causality results have significantly validated the evidence of instability of the ELG hypothesis in these MENA countries. Therefore, changes in policies and regulations to improve the export sector of these countries will not ultimately pay off in terms of achieving high rates of stable economic growth in these countries. Policymakers in these countries should search for the alternative catalyst of growth to continuously as well as to effectively promote long-term economic growth in these countries.