Time-variant reliability modeling based on hybrid non-probability method

In this paper, an innovative time-variant reliability analysis method based on non-probabilistic theory is developed for structures, which combines the interval model with the elliptical model. The coordinate transformation method is adopted to eliminate the correlation between variables for improving the accuracy of the reliability analysis results. An improved multi-dimensional response surface method is selected to solve the reliability problem based on the hybrid model. Finally, taking the cantilever beam structure as a case study, which is used to shed a light on the validity of the presented measure. The results show that in the early and the middle stage of service period, the dispersion of the uncertainty variable has a significant impact on the reliability. At the later stage, the moment degradation is the main factor affecting the reliability.