Urban scenarios modifications due to the earthquake: ruins formation criteria and interactions with pedestrians’ evacuation

One of the most influencing elements in inhabitants’ earthquake safety definition is represented by the interactions between people and post-event environment in urban scenarios. Understanding and simulating rules for pedestrians’ motion in earthquake evacuation could be useful to inquire the risk assessment introducing the “human” factor influence: integrated “risk maps” could be realized by combining results of similar analyses with the traditional site hazard, buildings vulnerability and exposition indices. This work proposes an innovative approach based on the analysis of these interactions. Two experimentally-based activities are required: an analysis of human behaviors towards the post-earthquake environment; a relation for defining environmental modifications. Results firstly show a summary of man-environment interactions in earthquake evacuations. A possible criterion for path choice in evacuation is also numerically defined. A theoretical agent-based model is developed on these bases and summarizes phases, motion rules and man-environment interactions in earthquake pedestrians’ evacuation in urban scenarios. Secondly, quick criteria for scenario modifications involving ruins formation are proposed and evaluated: for each building, the percentages of internal and external ruins area is a function of its vulnerability and the expected earthquake Richter magnitude. Moreover, the external ruins formation criterion is validated by comparing predicted and effective values of ruins area depth in real cases. The model could be proposed as a tool for evaluating probable pedestrians’ choices in post-event scenarios, in order to reduce the interferences between the built environment and the evacuation process through interventions on buildings, urban fabric and strategies for emergency management.