Scenarios of water resources development in Poland up to 2030

Due to the fact that water management responds to changing natural and socio-economic conditions its future perspective, depending on multiple and variable factors, is difficult to predict using traditional prognostic methods. The examined hypothesis shows that the scenario development process is a useful method for long-term strategic planning in the water management sector. Research was completed on the basis of expert assessments and panel discussions and structured as a scenario for the development process. The IPCC Emission Scenarios constitute the future development context. The results show that this predictive method is effective. Sensitivity of the results of the applied techniques of development scenarios shows a need for further research.