Simulation of a long-lived meso-β scale convective system over the mediterranean coast of Spain. Part II: Sensitivity to external forcings

The numerical simulation of a long-lived, stationary mesoscale convective system (MCS) already described in a previous paper (Fernández et al., 1995) is analyzed in greater detail. The influence of various external forcings, such as sea surface temperature, local orography or terrain roughness, upon the characteristics of the system is studied. This analysis makes it possible not only to identify the most important factors, but also to deduce the importance of some other internal forcings and to propose explanations for some dynamic features of the system that were difficult to understand. Hence, the sensitivity test methodology applied seems to be a useful tool to clarify the complex dynamics of some moist convective events. In the modelled MCS, sea surface temperature and orography are identified as key factors. The results also indicate that the upstream triggering of convection provoked by an orographic blocking effect is the main cause of the development of the system, while upslope triggering plays a secondary role.