The driving factors and future changes of CO2 emission in China’s nonferrous metal industry

As an energy-intensive industry in China, it is critical to promote energy conservation and carbon emission reduction in the nonferrous metal industry (NMI). This study first applies the Tapio decoupling model to explore the relationships between the industrial output and CO2 emission in China’s NMI. Then, the Generalized Divisia Index Model (GDIM) is adopted to uncover the factors driving the changes in CO2 emission from 2000 to 2019, and based on the decomposition results, scenario analysis is used to predict potential CO2 emission during 2021–2035. The results show that (1) the CO2 emission in China’s NMI increases by 397.93 million tons (Mt) during 2000–2019, and the decoupling state between the industrial output and CO2 emission is characterized by the weak decoupling status; (2) overall, the output scale is the dominant factor promoting the CO2 emissions increase, followed by the investment scale and energy consumption scale, while the carbon intensity of output and the carbon intensity of investment are the two most important abatement factors; (3) the scenario analysis indicates that the CO2 emission from NMI will peak around 2030 under the low-carbon scenario while 2026 under the enhanced low-carbon scenario. Policy suggestions are further put forward for carbon emission reduction in China’s NMI.