Polarization and its discontents: Morocco before and after the Arab Spring

This paper uses data from three Moroccan household surveys between 2001 to 2013 to address issues related to the so-called “Arab inequality puzzle”. Welfare inequalities are low and declining in Arab countries and exist against a growing sense of dissatisfaction and frustration. The paper hypothesizes that welfare inequality plays a role in explanation, if seen through the lens of absolute measures and notably absolute polarization. The paper argues that the relatively worsened perception of their welfare among poor, vulnerable, and lower middle-class Moroccan households mirrors the ongoing hollowing out of the welfare distribution’s middle and its growing polarization. The results of a multi-logit regression indicate that polarization is significantly and asymmetrically correlated to perception: the poorer are the households, the more polarization links negatively to their perceived welfare; and the richer are the households, the more polarization will positively correlate with their perception.