Multiple performances and paradoxical effects of China’s vehicle emission reduction policy

As the living standards of urban residents in China continue to improve, the number of motor vehicle trips is increasing, thus aggravating air pollution. Such pollution causes great harm to human health and the global environment. Using a system dynamics approach, this study analyzed the effect of implementation mode on China’s air pollution charging fee (APCF) policy and identified potentially negative medium- and long-term effects. The results indicated that the APCF policy has a dual effect under the single-charge mode (i.e., fees are charged on a daily basis). On the one hand, it has multiple effects of reducing emissions, relieving traffic congestion, and improving the happiness index. On the other hand, the higher the charge, the stronger the trip demand (possibly due to the sunk-cost fallacy and loss-aversion effect), which encourages motorists to weaken the cost of losses (i.e., from air pollution fees) by increasing the number of trips per day to seek short-term psychological balance, regardless of the extra costs and the amount of pollution generated. It was also found that APCF implementation mode significantly affected passenger car trips but not truck trips (perhaps because truck trips are mainly based on the demand of supply, and the daily number of trips is relatively stable). Overall, as APCF increases, it can have some paradoxical long-term effects on emissions, congestion, the happiness index, and road bearing capacity. This study’s findings can help the Chinese government improve and optimize its long-term air pollution control strategies.