Serum uric acid and risk of incident diabetes in middle-aged and elderly Chinese adults: prospective cohort study

The association between serum uric acid and the risk of incident diabetes in Chinese adults remains unknown. This study aimed to investigate this association in a community-dwelling population aged ≥ 40 years in Shanghai, China. Oral glucose tole3rance test was conducted during baseline and follow-up visits. Relative risk regression was utilized to examine the associations between baseline gender-specific serum uric acid levels and incident diabetes risk. A total of 613 (10.3%) incident diabetes cases were identified during the follow-up visit after 4.5 years. Fasting plasma glucose, postload glucose, and glycated hemoglobin A1c during the follow-up visit progressively increased across the sex-specific quartiles of serum uric acid (all Ps < 0.05). The incidence rate of diabetes increased across the quartiles of serum uric acid (7.43%, 8.77%, 11.47%, and 13.43%). Multivariate adjusted regression analysis revealed that individuals in the highest quartile had 1.36-fold increased risk of diabetes compared with those in the lowest quartile of serum uric acid (odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 1.36 (1.06–1.73)). Stratified analysis indicated that the association was only observed in women. Accordingly, serum uric acid was associated with the increased risk of incident diabetes among middle-aged and elderly Chinese women.