Projected wind changes in the Caribbean Sea based on CMIP6 models

Near-surface projected wind changes in the Caribbean Sea (CAR) related to climate warming are analyzed using 24 General Circulation Models (GCM) from the CMIP6 intercomparison project. A multi-model ensemble mean is constructed to evaluate wind changes in CAR and the Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ), using three different Socio Economic Pathways (SSPs) in the twenty-first century, and including their seasonal behavior. Models are validated against scatterometer data and a reanalysis product to assess their performance in the region. Best results are obtained from the MMM ensemble. Surface wind speed show significant spatially averaged trends in the 1850–2014 period. Larger trends are expected in the 2015–2100 period. Spatial changes in projected wind direction are not expected. Conversely, wind intensification has different spatial patterns in the dry and wet seasons when compared to the annual mean. In the wet season and SSP5-8.5 scenario, wind speed is expected to increase > 10% toward the south of the Colombian basin between 1990–2014 and 2076–2100 periods. Wind intensification will be greater between May and October. In all cases, projected wind intensification show a direct relation to the radiative scenario and is larger in the CLLJ when compared to CAR mean. Climate-related wind changes in CAR have the potential to affect regional climate, ocean dynamics and coastal communities.