Horizontal ecological compensation mechanism and green low-carbon development in river basins: evidence from Xin’an River basin

The Basin Horizontal Ecological Compensation Mechanism (BHEC) is a significant institutional innovation in China’s water environment management, aimed at achieving green, low-carbon, and high-quality development in the basin. This paper examines the current status of the spatial association network of green low-carbon development in Xin’an River basin, using social network analysis based on data from prefecture-level cities between 2006 and 2019. Using a dual difference model, the paper explores the important role of BHEC in promoting green low-carbon development from the perspectives of production and consumption and analyzes the path of BHEC’s promotion of green low-carbon development in detail. The results indicate that (1) the green low-carbon development in the Xin’an River basin is universally connected in space, but this connection is uneven among the cities in the basin, presenting a network spatial structure with the central region as the core and the north and south regions approaching the core. (2) BHEC contributes to green low-carbon development, and the “two-wheel drive” of green technology progress and green technology efficiency is essential to improve green low-carbon development. (3) From the perspective of consumption affecting green low-carbon development, the positive impact of BHEC on green low-carbon development is inseparable from the synergistic guarantee of public participation. (4) From the production side of green low-carbon development, the ecological effect, structural effect, and technological effect are significant transmission factors of compensation policies affecting green low-carbon development. (5) The “blood transfusion” pilot policy is more helpful to improve green low-carbon development, and compensation policy has positive spillover effects. Finally, the paper argues that the trans-basin ecological compensation policy is expected to become a long-term mechanism to promote green low-carbon and high-quality development in the basin, providing a theoretical and practical basis for developing countries to achieve green low-carbon development through an ecological compensation system.