Evaluation of reliability of field tests to predict performance during Ironman Triathlon

The reliability of functional evaluation tests to predict performance in Ironman contests is scarce and the results are often equivocal. The purpose of this study was to identify which pre-competition test could best predict Ironman competition outcome. Seven male tri-athletes were recruited 6-8 weeks prior to Ironman Austria. Each athlete performed two maximal incremental tests on the field, a cycling (test A), and a running test (test B). Correlation between cycling and running mean speed during Ironman phases and oxygen uptake (VO2), carbon dioxide production (VCO2), pulmonary ventilation (VE), heart rate (HR), oxygen pulse (OP) and cost of motion (Cm), collected during tests, was demonstrated. Significant correlation was found for VO2 at respiratory compensation point (RCP) (r2 = 0.73; P < 0.05) and at peak exercise (r2 = 0.73; P < 0.05) during the test. Moreover, VE showed significant correlation both at RCP (r2 = 0.73; P < 0.05) and at peak exercise (r2 = 0.61; P < 0.05) values reached during the test. Mean cycling speed and OP values at RCP and peak exercise during test A showed significant correlation (r2 = 0.76; P < 0.05 and r2 = 0.87; P < 0.05, respectively). The Cm value at RCP during test A demonstrated significant correlation (r2 = 0.67; P < 0.05). No correlation between mean running speed during the running fraction of the Ironman and any of the variables collected during test B was demonstrated. The results of the present investigation suggest that pre-competition evaluation tests are of limited use to predict competition outcome. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Italia.