Impact of global warming on the energetics of lower tropospheric ultra-long waves and the Indian summer monsoon

Analyses of 60 years (1949–2008) of monthly energetics of the zonal waves derived from NCEP/NCAR data indicate that ultra-long waves (waves 1 and 2) dominate the spectrum of lower tropospheric zonal waves during monsoon season (June–September). Westerlies over the Indian subcontinent are a source of energy to wave 1. Two oceanic anticyclones, one over Pacific and the other over Atlantic are sources of energy to wave 2. These two waves are inversely correlated. Climatology of the energetics of ultra-long waves for the two epochs 1949–1978 (CLP1) and 1979–2008 (CLP2) of 30 years indicates that the intensity of wave 1 has decreased by about 33% whereas the intensity of wave 2 has increased by about 27%. Northward transport of sensible heat during CLP1 changes to southward during CLP2. Larger generation of zonal mean Available Potential Energy (APE) during CLP2 indicates more heating. A larger conversion of kinetic energy (KE) of wave 1 into APE of wave 1 leads to weakening of wave 1 during CLP2. In case of wave 2, lower rate of conversion of KE to APE leads to stronger wave 2 during CLP2.