A Conjoint Approach of Spatial Statistics and a Traditional Method for Travel Mode Choice Issues

Conventional analysis of transportation demand is usually carried out using socioeconomic, travel, and land use attributes. Despite the effectiveness on travel demand forecasting, it is important to recognize that alternative approaches have been developed in recent years. Traditional methods, besides considering different explanatory variables, are appropriate to make estimates exclusively on previously surveyed households. On the other hand, recent studies have addressed spatial statistical concerns in the field of travel demand forecasting. The aim of this paper is to spatially estimate motorized travel mode choice probabilities in a continuous map using an Origin-Destination Survey database, conducted in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area in Brazil in 2007. Values were estimated in both sampled and non-sampled coordinates. This paper proposes a conjoint approach that combines the traditional procedure of travel demand forecasting (multiple logistic regression) with a spatial statistical method (ordinary kriging). A comparison is made with the one-step spatial method—indicator kriging (IK). Conjoint studies of spatial statistics and traditional methods are thriving in transportation analysis, giving rise to a travel mode choice surface in a confirmatory way. It is concluded that the proposed method can be used for future predictions of travel mode choices, unlike IK. © 2017, Springer International Publishing AG.