Global warming: A myth?2. Credibility of climate scenarios predicted by systems simulations

Earth’s atmosphere is a dynamic system and is driven by numerous interacting factors, which are yet to be studied with precision. Computer models, which are generally run under CO2 doubling scenario, may have uncertainties for several reasons. At the present CO2 emission rate, doubling may be attained only after 70–95 years (at 1% increase yr-1). Global efforts to cut back on CO2 emission, underway for quite sometime, and the stress on the use of alternative non-conventional and renewable energies may increase the doubling time considerably. Nevertheless, the considerable improvements in the capability of ocean-atmosphere models in simulating present climates show that the intricate interplay of several factors in climatic change are now better understood and there is hope for further improvement in the model performance.