Sustainability-oriented system dynamics method for coordinated megacity ecosystem development: the case of Beijing, China

The essence of megacity ecosystem problems is the unbalanced relationship between humans and their living environment. The most notable features of this imbalance are the environmental quality decline and resource shortages, which cause human survival crises. This paper combines the drivers, pressures, state, impact, and response (DPSIR) framework to explore a new system dynamics (SD) model to achieve megacity ecosystems’ sustainability. First, indicator selection is conducted using the DPSIR framework model. Second, causal loop diagrams and stock-flow charts of systems are generated with the SD model to simulate the change tendency inside the megacity ecosystem. Finally, to validate the applicability of the proposed method, we select the urban ecosystem of Beijing as the case study. This study utilizes the proposed research framework to analyze the effect of the main driving factors among five development strategies and current trends. The results show that the combination of population, environmental protection policies and technical means had the greatest sustainability potential. This study reveals a dynamic relationship between the main influencing factors within megacity ecosystems and offers suggestions to the sustainability of the environment, resources and social economy of megacities.