Sensitivity analysis of convective and PBL parameterization schemes for Luban and Titli tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the most distractive natural weather phenomena and cause extensive damage and socioeconomic loss over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) region. Convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) system play a vital role in the origin and strengthening of the TCs. The various convective and PBL parameterization schemes are available in the statistical model, which integrates these processes. The efficient incorporation of these schemes is vital to enhance the performance of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. In the present study, twelve experiments have been designed to carry out the numerical simulations using Advance Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model. The behavior and performance of the schemes have been evaluated to verify the instantaneous forecast of the TCs. The simulated cyclone track, which is assessed with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) best track data, indicates that the vector displacement error and RMSE for the experiment MWBM and YWBM are < 100 km and < 10 km, respectively. The maximum sustained 10-m wind prediction shows MWKF for Luban and YWKF for Titli have the least RMSE value, accounting for 7.13 ms−1 and 9.75 ms−1. The equitable threat score (ETS) at 24-h accumulated rainfall is > 0.4 for MLBM and up to 60 mm in Luban. However, it is > 0.6 for YLBM and up to 40 mm for Titli. Based on the results and keeping the cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall, the BMJ convective scheme with the YSU and MYJ PBL has better predicting skills over the NIO region. The KF scheme has better skills in the prediction of TC intensity.