Research on the impact of green finance on China’s carbon neutralization capacity

At present, the life and production of our society are still accompanied by high pollution emissions. The proposal of the “double carbon” goal puts forward clearer requirements for China’s energy conservation and emission reduction process. To cope with stricter green development requirements, green finance came into being, contributing a new path to the realization of the “double carbon” goal. This paper is based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China (except Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) from 2011 to 2020, using the fixed effect model, threshold model, mediator model, and SDM model to study the impact of green finance on carbon neutralization capacity and its impact path based on reasonable measurement of regional green finance development level and carbon neutralization capacity. The study found that due to the existence of the “green paradox” and “forced emission reduction”, China’s green finance has a significant positive U-shaped impact path on carbon neutralization capacity; at the same time, informal regulation has a significant single-threshold effect in this path. When informal regulation crosses 0.47, the impact of green finance on carbon neutralization capacity will change from negative to positive, overcoming the impact of the “green paradox”; there is a nonlinear mediating effect of marketization level and technological innovation in the path of green finance affecting carbon neutralization capacity. In addition, green finance not only affects local carbon neutralization capacity but also has a positive spillover effect on neighboring regions.