How Does Urban Shrinkage Affect Land Use Efficiency? A Case Study of Shrinking Cities in Northeast China

The effect of urban shrinkage has gradually become a new topic. Theoretically, urban shrinkage may exert great influence on land use efficiency (LUE) through various urban subsystems, but there is currently limited research examining these pathways. Using the Super-SBM-Undesirable model and the Structural Equation Model (SEM), this study calculates the LUE of shrinking cities in Northeast China and simulates the process of urban shrinkage affecting LUE. To quantify the process of urban shrinkage affecting LUE, three mediation variables, namely the economy, public services, and innovation, are used as latent variables to apply SEM. The results show that urban shrinkage will affect LUE through a direct path and indirect paths. In the direct path, urban shrinkage leads to an improvement in LUE. In the indirect paths, the economy and innovation will transmit the negative effect of urban shrinkage on LUE, while public services will reverse this effect. An important contribution of this study is that it quantifies the paths of urban shrinkage affecting LUE, thereby expanding the understanding of urban shrinkage effect and laying a foundation for the sustainable development of shrinking cities.